Recent campaign ads argue that the fiscal stimulus package hasn't helped at all. Now I know that unemployment is still too high and many people are still searching for work so I'm not trying to say that economic conditions are great. However, I'm sick and tired of people saying that the Democrats are wasting money. What irks me most is that Republicans pretend that they would have done nothing to help the economy when in fact they proposed almost as much spending (the
final price tag for the Obama plan was about $790 billion while the
Republican alternative was $710 billion). And the gigantic deficit is not only because of government spending, but it's also because tax revenue is way down due to the high unemployment numbers. (Getting sidetracked: why won't Republicans LEAP at Obama's suggestion to freeze government spending? Isn't that a no brainer?)
Anyway, I didn't see a lot of news coverage on last week's economic numbers that should help illustrate the immediate impact of the stimulus package. Last Friday, the government released the numbers for economic growth in the 4th quarter of 2009. To help put the number in perspective, let's look at some historical numbers of quarterly GDP growth. (Source: the Bureau of Economic Analysis at
http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls)
Some technical details on the numbers: Though economic growth (GDP) is reported quarterly, it is often expressed as an ANNUAL number and is adjusted for inflation. This is called the real rate of growth as it is a measure of goods and services in the US economy. Here is what it has looked like over the last 25 years - to go back more than 25 years ago just doesn't make much sense to me since our economy is so very different than it was in the 1950s.
| Time Period | Quarterly Growth Rate |
| 1984-2009 (Last 25 years) | 2.8% average |
| 2000-2009 (Last 10 years) | 1.8% average |
| 1993-2001 (Clinton) | 3.8% average |
| 3rd quarter 2008 | -2.7% |
| 4th quarter 2008 | -5.4% |
| 1st quarter 2009 | -6.4% (stimulus package signed on 2/17/09) |
| 2nd quarter 2009 | -0.7% |
| 3rd quarter 2009 | +2.2% |
| 4th quarter 2009 | +5.7% |
Look at how quickly the numbers have turned around since Obama became president. Obama came in at a time when the economy was at its WORST - the 4th quarter 2008 and 1st quarter 2009 were the two worst quarters for economic growth in the last 25 years! Yet, in less than one year, we've swung to +5.7% growth!
I'm not arguing that Obama is our economic savior, especially since unemployment must improve. But how can someone say that the stimulus package didn't help? Seriously?